Signals are starting to emerge from the noise.
According to various sources, the majority of individuals infected with 2019-nCoV are asymptomatic; a figure of 65% has been quoted, from a well-controlled but small Japanese data set (1). This is good news for the infected individual, perhaps, but it makes containment effectively impossible – so look out world, here we come. And what can the world expect?
According to that same small but controlled Japanese data set, we can expect that between 15% and 25% of infected persons will become ill to the point of requiring intensive care (1, 2), and 2% will die (3).
Two issues arise.
No health care system anywhere in the world is remotely able to deal with the problems of containment and management on such a scale, and on such a trajectory. Even the Chinese, who have moved further and faster than any other nation could have done, appear to be failing (4).
There are no adequate or specific treatments available at this time from the pharmaceutical industry. Vaccines will take too long to test and disseminate, and the retrovirals being used in Thailand have uncertain and certainly imperfect efficacy (5).
It is now a matter of global urgency to trial preventative and therapeutic strategies derived from the world of natural pharmacology. These include sialic acid anti-adhesin prophylaxis, and LPO innate immune amplification technology, as detailed in the previous post.
We need to move fast, bypassing the sclerotic regulatory systems that have held natural pharmacotherapy back for decades, if we are to have a chance of helping to stem the pandemic.
We need to do this for the sake of the many who will otherwise sicken and die. And we need to do this to save society.
The pandemic is disrupting supply chains all over the world (5), and the resulting economic down-turn will likely be enough to push an already dangerously over-leveraged economic system into the recession that was already widely expected.
The Black Death caused sudden and extreme inflation (6), and the so-called Spanish Flu was a significant factor that precipitated the Great Depression of 1929.
Our increasingly inter-connected world makes us more vulnerable both to pandemics and to the economic and social effects of those pandemics.
We must act now.
- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Sampled February 4).
- Courie, LM. The Black Death and Peasants Revolt. New York: Wayland Publishers, 1972
- Strayer JR (ed), Dictionary of the Middle Ages. New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons. Vol 2, pp257-267